全球南方國家每年需要2兆美元來因應氣候
Global South needs $2 trillion a year to tame, cope with climate
發表日期：2022-11-08
作者：Marlowe；翻譯：林詩軒；校稿：吳名翊
引用來源：https://phys.org/news/2022-11-global-south-trillion-year-cope.html
『參考要點』：在COP27上，聯合國最新報告裡發展中國家和新興國家（排除中國）每年需花費超過2兆美元來因應全球暖化所帶來的災害，並呼籲發達國家對這些全球南方國家進行貸款補助
『相關字彙』：emerging countries（新興國家）、COP27（第27屆聯合國氣候變遷大會）、developing countries（發展中國家）、global south（全球南方）
圖說：最近一份新報告是首批規劃因應氣候變遷影響投資報告之一。
A new report is among the first to map out investment needed to cope with climate change impacts.
根據聯合國於2022年11月8日周二發布的一份報告，如果世界要阻止全球暖化的並因應其影響，到2030年，發展中國家和新興國家（不包括中國）每年需要投資超過2兆美元（約新臺幣60兆元）。
Developing and emerging countries—excluding China—need investments well beyond $2 trillion annually by 2030 if the world is to stop the global warming juggernaut and cope with its impacts, according to a UN-backed report released Tuesday.
英國和埃及，這兩個分別在英國格拉斯哥舉行2021年聯合國氣候高峰會和在埃及沙姆沙伊赫舉行COP27的東道主委託進行分析表示，應該由富裕國家、投資者和多邊開發銀行投資1兆美元（約新臺幣30兆元），至於剩下約1.4兆美元（約新臺幣42兆元）則來自私人和公共資源。
A trillion dollars should come from rich countries, investors and multilateral development banks, said the analysis commissioned by Britain and Egypt, hosts respectively of the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow and this week's COP27 event in Sharm el-Sheikh. The rest of the money—about $1.4 trillion—must originate domestically from private and public sources, said the report.
目前除中國以外，對新興和發展中經濟體的投資約為5,000億美元（約新臺幣1.5兆元）。
Current investments in emerging and developing economies other than China stand at about $500 billion.
這份長達100頁的分析報告的「氣候行動融資」是一份投資藍圖，主要目的是以足夠快的速度實現全球經濟綠色化，以實現巴黎氣候條約將全球氣溫上升幅度限制在攝氏2度以下，並盡可能控制在攝氏1.5度的目標。
The new 100-page analysis, Finance for Climate Action, is presented as an investment blueprint for greening the global economy quickly enough to meet Paris climate treaty goals of capping the rise in global temperatures below two degrees Celsius, and at 1.5C if possible.
科學家警告說，超過這個臨界值地球可能將變成不宜居住的溫室狀態。
Warming beyond that threshold, scientists warn, could push Earth toward an unlivable hothouse state.
該報告的負責人之一、也曾撰寫一份具有里程碑意義氣候變遷經濟學報告的經濟學家尼古拉斯·斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）表示：「富裕國家必須了解，投資新興市場和發展中國家的氣候行動時，也符合他們的自身利益；同時也考慮到他們現在和過去的高排放對地球造成的嚴重影響，這也跟道德正義有關」。
"Rich countries should recognise that it is in their vital self-interest—as well as a matter of justice given the severe impacts caused by their high levels of current and past emissions—to invest in climate action in emerging market and developing countries," said one of the report's leads, economist Nicholas Stern, who also authored a landmark report on the economics of climate change.
該報告列出了聯合國氣候談判涵蓋的三大領域所需的投資分別為減少導致氣候暖化的溫室氣體（減緩）、適應未來氣候影響（調適），以及針對遭受災害損失的窮人和弱勢群體進行補償，稱為「損失和損害」。
The report is among the first to map out the investment needed across the three broad areas covered in UN climate talks: reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions that drive warming (mitigation), adapting to future climate impacts (adaptation), and compensating poor and vulnerable nations for unavoidable damages already incurred, known as "loss and damage".
圖說：將全球暖化限制在一定溫度的機率，會取決於不同的情況
Probabilities of limiting global warming to a certain temperature, depending different scenarios.
鎖定化石燃料
Fossil fuel lock-in
呼籲已開發國家提供的政府補助和低利率貸款從每年約300億美元（約新臺幣9,000億元）增加一倍，到2025年達到600億美元（約新臺幣1兆8,000億元）。
It calls for grants and low-interest loans from the governments of developed countries to double from about $30 billion annually today to $60 billion by 2025.
本篇作者表示：「這些資金來自於新興市場和發展中國家復育土地和大自然的支持，以及防止因應氣候變遷影響造成的損失和損害」。
"These sources of finance are critical for emerging markets and developing countries to support action on restoring land and nature, and for protecting against and responding to the loss and damage due to climate change impacts," the authors said.
「新興市場」國家包括全球南方的大型經濟體，這些經濟體近幾十年來增長迅速，同時溫室氣體排放量也在增加，像是印度、巴西、南非、印尼和越南。中國過去曾被視為其中一員，但現今被排除在外的原因極度可能是其獨特的混合型態。
"Emerging market" countries include large economies in the global south that have seen rapid growth—coupled with rising greenhouse gas emissions—in recent decades, including India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam. Historically seen as part of this group, China was excluded from the new estimates, presumably because of its unique and hybrid status.
中國是世界第二大經濟體，在許多方面都很先進，北京透過「一帶一路」倡議和促進發展中國家的「南南合作」投資，將自己定位成一位國際投資者。
Its economy—the second largest in the world—is in many respects advanced, and Beijing has positioned itself as a major international investor in its own right, through its Belt and Road Initiative and the promotion of "South-South" investment across the developing world.
在氣候變遷的情況下，發展中國家包含世界上最貧窮的經濟體，而且這些國家大多在非洲，是最容易受到氣候災害影響的國家，像是面臨海平面上升和越來越強大的颶風的小島嶼國家。
In the context of climate change, developing nations include the world's poorest economies, many of them in Africa, and those most vulnerable to climate hazards, such as small island states facing existential threats from sea-level rise and ever-more powerful cyclones.
斯特恩表示：「預計未來十年能源基礎設施和消費的大幅度增長，將出現在新興市場和發展中國家。如果繼續依賴化石燃料和放任排放，世界將無法避免的面臨嚴峻的氣候變遷，將會破壞及摧毀富裕國家和貧窮國家數十億人的生命和生計。」
"Most of the growth in energy infrastructure and consumption projected to occur over the next decade will be in emerging market and developing countries," said Stern. "If they lock in dependence on fossil fuels and emissions, the world will not be able to avoid dangerous climate change, damaging and destroying billions of lives and livelihoods in both rich and poor countries."